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Golub Capital

Middle Market Report

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Golub Capital Middle Market Report

Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index

Q3 2024

 

U.S. Middle Market Performance Shows Sustained Stability


Private equity-backed companies continue to demonstrate resilience and adaptability, consistent
with the last 8 quarters.

Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 8% during the first two months of the third quarter of 2024. Revenue grew 5% during the same period.

The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies and GDP in advance of earnings season.

Golub Capital Altman Index Highlights

Year-Over-Year (YoY) Growth Revenue Earnings
Q3 2024 5.1% 7.9%
Key Sectors Q3 2024 (YoY) Revenue Earnings
Consumer 4.3% -1.2%
Healthcare 4.3% 8.3%
Industrials 1.8% 2.6%
Technology 9.0% 13.9%

Source: Golub Capital Internal Data.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said:

Solid revenue and earnings growth continued for companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index for the eighth consecutive quarter. The cost discipline and pricing power we highlighted throughout the recent inflationary period continues to pay dividends for many companies in our sample, as aggregate earnings growth materially outpaced aggregate revenue growth for the fifth consecutive quarter. These encouraging trends come with a caveat. Dispersion in operating performance is increasing, both in our sample and in the broader credit market. Even in a strong sector like Technology, which posted another quarter of double-digit earnings growth, there’s a striking performance gap between mission-critical enterprise software providers with dominant market share and others in more fragmented and competitive markets. We expect to see greater performance dispersion in the coming period, both within and across sectors.

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July 9, 2024

Watch Lawrence Golub's Exclusive Interview on CNBC's Fast Money Discussing the Q2 2024 GCMMR

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About the Golub Capital Altman Index

The Golub Capital Altman Index measures the actual revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of US middle market private companies for the first two months of each calendar quarter and provides insight into anticipated quarterly performance of US public companies. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.

Reported shortly before public company earnings season, the performance of the Golub Capital Altman Index has been highly correlated with the median growth rates in revenue and EBITDA of the companies in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, and Russell 2000 indexes, as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), since data began to be tracked in 2012.

About Dr. Edward I. Altman
A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150
articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.

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Important Disclosure

The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

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  1. The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.