Golub Capital Middle Market Report
Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index
Q1 2026
U.S. Middle Market Remained Resilient in Q1 2026
Mission-critical enterprise software businesses grew earnings by 4% compared to Q1 2025.
Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew revenue by 1.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. Earnings remained unchanged year-over-year.
The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies and GDP in advance of earnings season.
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said:
Some good news: enterprise software providers of systems of record generally performed well in the first quarter. Earnings growth of 4% in our software sample shows ongoing momentum in the sector, despite concerns about AI headwinds. The broader Golub Capital Altman Index has shown continued, albeit slowing, revenue and earnings growth for middle market companies over the last several quarters, including the first quarter of 2026. Our data suggests that the U.S. economy continues to grow.
Dr. Edward I. Altman said:
Although our data offers encouraging evidence of economic resilience during the first quarter, we note that it does not reflect the impact of the Iran conflict and the consequent rise in oil prices in March. We expect that sensitivity to energy costs will be a significant driver of variance in first quarter performance at the company- and sector-level. It remains to be seen how significant of a headwind the Consumer sector faced from higher gasoline prices in March. Although the overall increase in EBITDA and revenue in the last quarter was relatively flat, both consumer and software companies showed resilient and impressive growth.