The Golub Capital Middle Market Report is the first and only report based on the actual performance of private middle market companies. Issued in advance of public company earnings season, the report is a unique source of timely information for investors and market analysts.
Middle Market Report
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, and Dr. Edward I. Altman, Professor of Finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business, are pleased to present the Golub Capital Altman Index.
The Golub Capital Middle Market Report is designed to offer early insight into the performance of the U.S. economy, based on data from the first two months of each calendar quarter. Given that the Q1 2020 report is based on data from January and February and does not reflect the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, we do not believe this quarter’s report provides actionable insight about current conditions. The Golub Capital Altman Index data for Q1 2020 is presented solely for the purpose of continuity.
GOLUB CAPITAL ALTMAN INDEX HIGHLIGHTS
|
Year-Over-Year (“YoY”) Growth |
REVENUE | EARNINGS |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 10.5% | 8.5% |
| Q4 2019 | 8.3% | 10.0% |
|
Key Sectors Q1 2020 (YoY)
|
REVENUE | EARNINGS |
| Consumer | 11.7% | 8.5% |
| Healthcare | 8.1% | 8.7% |
| Industrials | 2.6% | (9.8%) |
| Technology | 13.3% | 20.9% |
Earnings Growth (Quarterly YoY)
Earnings Growth (Quarterly YoY) GCAI vs. Adj. Indexes
Revenue Growth (Quarterly YoY)
Revenue Growth (Quarterly YoY) GCAI vs. Adj. Indexes
Appendix: GCAI Results by Sector
Additional information can be found below regarding sector trends in the Golub Capital Altman Index.
Consumer
Healthcare
Industrials
Technology
Important Disclosure
The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.
The Golub Capital Altman Index measures the actual revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of US middle market private companies for the first two months of each calendar quarter and provides insight into anticipated quarterly performance of US public companies. The index is based on aggregated data from approximately 150 companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender.
Reported shortly before public company earnings season, the performance of the Golub Capital Altman Index has been highly correlated with the median growth rates in revenue and EBITDA of the companies in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, and Russell 2000 indexes, as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), since data began to be tracked in 2012.
For a white paper detailing the methodology behind the Golub Capital Altman Index, please click the download button.
Midmarket Private Companies See Earnings Rise Despite Softening Global Growth
The Wall Street Journal – October 16, 2019
Read ArticleHere are the Three Stories to Keep in Mind Heading into Earnings Season
CNBC – April 11, 2019
Watch VideoSmall Private Firms See Surge in Fourth-Quarter Earnings
The Wall Street Journal – January 11, 2019
Read ArticleMiddle Market Private Companies Extend Record-Setting Revenue Growth Streak
The Wall Street Journal – October 12, 2018
Read ArticleEarnings of Middle-Market Private Companies Jump 12.6% in Q2
The Wall Street Journal – July 13, 2018
Read ArticleU.S. Middle Market Sees Double Digit Revenue Growth in Q1/18 Report
ABL Advisor – April 18, 2018
Read ArticleMiddle-Market Private Companies Post Slower Earnings Growth
The Wall Street Journal – April 17, 2018
Read ArticleMiddle-Market Private Companies Earnings Growth Surged in Q4
The Wall Street Journal – January 12, 2018
Read ArticleGolub: Middle market companies see 4Q revenue, earnings growth
LCD News – January 12, 2018
Read ArticleUS mid-market earnings grow 12.8% in Q4 2017, up from 4.9% in Q3
Creditflux – January 1, 2018
Read ArticleEarnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by more than 13% in Q3 2019, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
October 11, 2019
Read ArticleEarnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by more than 12% in Q2 2019, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
July 12, 2019
Read ArticleEarnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by nearly 10% in Q1 2019, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
April 16, 2019
Read ReportEarnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 13% in Q4 2018, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
January 11, 2019
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 12% in Q3 2018, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
October 11, 2018
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 11% in Q1 2018, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
April 17, 2018
Read ReportEarnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 12.8% in Q4 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
January 12, 2018
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 6.79% in Q3 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
October 11, 2017
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 8.94% in Q2 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
July 12, 2017
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grows at 8.45% in Q1 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
April 10, 2017
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grows at 5.33% in Q4 2016, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
January 11, 2017
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Continues to Grow at 4.62%, With Information Technology Expanding at 9.85%, According to Golub Capital Middle Market Report
October 7, 2016
Read ReportRevenue in the U.S. Middle Market Continues to Expand at a Healthy Pace of 7.4%, and Industrial Sector (Ex-Energy) Profit Margins Increase Substantially, Although Overall Middle Market Profit Growth Slows, According to Golub Capital Middle Market Report
July 7, 2016
Read ReportProfit Growth Accelerated to 5% in the U.S. Middle Market in Q1 2016, According to Golub Capital Middle Market Report
April 7, 2016
Read Report