The Golub Capital Middle Market Report is the first and only report based on the actual performance of private middle market companies. Issued in advance of public company earnings season, the report is a unique source of timely information for investors and market analysts.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, and Dr. Edward I. Altman, Professor of Finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business, are pleased to present the Golub Capital Altman Index.

The Golub Capital Middle Market Report is designed to offer early insight into the performance of the U.S. economy, based on data from the first two months of each calendar quarter. Given that the Q1 2020 report is based on data from January and February and does not reflect the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, we do not believe this quarter’s report provides actionable insight about current conditions. The Golub Capital Altman Index data for Q1 2020 is presented solely for the purpose of continuity.

GOLUB CAPITAL ALTMAN INDEX HIGHLIGHTS

Year-Over-Year (“YoY”) Growth

REVENUE EARNINGS
Q1 2020 10.5% 8.5%
Q4 2019 8.3% 10.0%
Key Sectors Q1 2020 (YoY)
REVENUE EARNINGS
Consumer 11.7% 8.5%
Healthcare 8.1% 8.7%
Industrials 2.6% (9.8%)
Technology 13.3% 20.9%

Earnings Growth (Quarterly YoY)

Earnings Growth (Quarterly YoY) GCAI vs. Adj. Indexes

Revenue Growth (Quarterly YoY)

Revenue Growth (Quarterly YoY) GCAI vs. Adj. Indexes

Appendix: GCAI Results by Sector
Additional information can be found below regarding sector trends in the Golub Capital Altman Index.

Consumer

Healthcare

Industrials

Technology

Important Disclosure

The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only, and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

The Golub Capital Altman Index measures the actual revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of US middle market private companies for the first two months of each calendar quarter and provides insight into anticipated quarterly performance of US public companies. The index is based on aggregated data from approximately 150 companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender.

Reported shortly before public company earnings season, the performance of the Golub Capital Altman Index has been highly correlated with the median growth rates in revenue and EBITDA of the companies in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, and Russell 2000 indexes, as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), since data began to be tracked in 2012.

For a white paper detailing the methodology behind the Golub Capital Altman Index, please click the download button.

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Earnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by nearly 10% in Q1 2019, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Earnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 13% in Q4 2018, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Revenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 12% in Q3 2018, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Revenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 11% in Q1 2018, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Earnings in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 12.8% in Q4 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Revenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 6.79% in Q3 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Revenue in the U.S. Middle Market Grew by 8.94% in Q2 2017, According to the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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October 7, 2016
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Revenue in the U.S. Middle Market Continues to Expand at a Healthy Pace of 7.4%, and Industrial Sector (Ex-Energy) Profit Margins Increase Substantially, Although Overall Middle Market Profit Growth Slows, According to Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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Profit Growth Accelerated to 5% in the U.S. Middle Market in Q1 2016, According to Golub Capital Middle Market Report
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