Golub Capital Middle Market Report
Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index
Q2 2026
U.S. Middle Market Showed Strength in Q2 2026
Resilient, private equity-backed middle market companies demonstrated steady growth in revenue and EBITDA year-over-year.
Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew revenue by 3.1% year-over-year in the first two months of the second quarter of 2026. Earnings grew by 3.7% year-over-year during the same period.
The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies in advance of earnings season.
Golub Capital Altman Index Highlights
Q2 2026
| Year-Over-Year (YoY) Growth |
|---|
| Revenue | Earnings |
|---|
| Aggregate GCAI | 3.1% | 3.7% |
Source: Golub Capital Internal Data.
| Year-Over-Year (YoY) Growth |
|---|
| Sub-Sector | Revenue | Earnings |
|---|
| Consumer | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| Software | 4.0% | 9.8% |
Lawrence E. Golub, Co-CEO of Golub Capital, said:
Our early read on second quarter results is encouraging. Despite higher oil prices and uncertainty related to the Iran conflict, middle market companies in our sample delivered steady growth in both revenue and EBITDA. We were particularly encouraged by the continued strength of our enterprise software companies. Our data suggests that mission-critical software providers with strong market share and durable customer relationships continue to perform well. More broadly, these results are consistent with an economy that continues to demonstrate resilience.
Dr. Edward I. Altman said:
One notable finding from this quarter’s data is that earnings growth kept pace with revenue growth. This suggests that companies in our sample generally were able to maintain profit margins despite the inflationary pressures that emerged during April and May. We were also encouraged by the performance of Consumer companies. In last quarter’s report, we highlighted the possibility that higher gasoline prices could create a headwind for consumer spending. While we remain mindful of the risks associated with higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty, our Consumer-sector data suggests that those concerns had not yet materially affected operating performance during the period covered by this report.
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About the Golub Capital Altman Index
The Golub Capital Altman Index measures the actual revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of U.S. middle market private companies for the first two months of each calendar quarter and provides insight into anticipated quarterly performance of U.S. public companies. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.
About Dr. Edward I. Altman
A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two dozen books and over 150
articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.
Important Disclosure
The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.
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