Golub Capital

Middle Market Report

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Golub Capital Middle Market Report

Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index

Q2 2021


 

SPECIAL EDITION
Earnings in the U.S. Middle Market Are Booming, Even Compared to Strong, Pre-Covid Q2 2019 Results

 

Q2 2021 Earnings Grew 31% vs. Q2 2019

The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies and GDP in advance of earnings season.

Golub Capital Altman Index
Comparison Pre- and Post-Covid

April–May 2021 vs. April–May 2019 Revenue Earnings
Aggregate 20.6% 31.5%
Consumer 21.4% 25.0%
Healthcare 4.4% 18.1%
Industrials 2.4% 20.0%
Technology 27.0% 52.6%

Source: Golub Capital Internal Data.
This table reflects a two-year growth period.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said:

The U.S. economic boom continues in Q2. Revenue and earnings growth in April and May 2021 were remarkably strong relative to April and May 2019, which was also a strong period. The 21% revenue growth compared to the pre-Covid period is striking because we had been seeing soft year-over-year revenue growth rates for the last several quarters. This indicates that growth in the second quarter is not just a recovery from Covid; it’s a reflection of a booming economy.

Reports Archive

Article
October 13, 2023
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July 13, 2023
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Golub Capital Middle Market Report Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index Q2 2023 U.S. Middle Market Remains Resilient Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index experienced year-over-year earnings growth of 5% and revenue growth of 4% during the first two months of the second quarter of 2023. The Golub Capital Altman Index […]
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April 13, 2023
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Golub Capital Middle Market Report Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index Q1 2023   U.S. Middle Market Growth Continues to Exceed Expectations   Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index experienced year-over-year earnings growth of 11% and revenue growth of 11% during the first two months of the first quarter of 2023. […]
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January 12, 2023
Q4 2022: U.S. Middle Market Growth Shows a Positive Surprise
Golub Capital Middle Market Report Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index Q4 2022   U.S. Middle Market Growth Shows a Positive Surprise   Index revenue grew 11% year-over-year during the same period. The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies and GDP in advance of earnings season. Golub […]
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About the Golub Capital Altman Index

The Golub Capital Altman Index measures the actual revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of US middle market private companies for the first two months of each calendar quarter and provides insight into anticipated quarterly performance of US public companies.  The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.
 
Reported shortly before public company earnings season, the performance of the Golub Capital Altman Index has been highly correlated with the median growth rates in revenue and EBITDA of the companies in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, and Russell 2000 indexes, as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), since data began to be tracked in 2012.
 
About Dr. Edward I. Altman
A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150 articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.
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Important Disclosure

The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

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  1. The Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) data for Q2 2021 are presented solely for the purpose of continuity. Readers are encouraged to interpret the data from those periods with caution. The GCAI is designed to offer early insight into the performance of the U.S. economy, based on data from the first two months of each calendar quarter. GCAI results for Q2 2021 were based on data from April and May 2021 compared to April and May 2020, when many businesses were affected by lockdowns and other restrictions.
  2. Effective Q2 2022, the Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) excludes Golub Capital portfolio companies that have recurring revenue-based credit facilities. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.