Golub Capital Middle Market Report
Featuring the Golub Capital Altman Index
Earnings in the U.S. Middle Market Continue To Boom Compared To Strong, Pre-Covid Q3 2019 Results
Q3 2021 Earnings Grew by 21% vs. Q3 2019
The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies and GDP in advance of earnings season.
Golub Capital Altman Index
Comparison Pre- and Post-Covid
|July–August 2021 vs. July–August 2019||Revenue||Earnings|
Source: Golub Capital Internal Data.
This table reflects a two-year growth period
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said:
The U.S. economy continued to boom in Q3. The Consumer sector had a blockbuster quarter, with 27% revenue growth and 48% EBITDA growth compared to the same period in 2019. Consumer sector margins benefited from operating leverage as customers spent stimulus payments and caught up on purchases deferred by the pandemic. However, heading into Q4 the key question to ask is whether or not there will be enough inventory to keep pace with demand during the holiday season. With supply chain issues worsening by the day, it’s smart to get your holiday shopping done early this year.
About the Golub Capital Altman Index
A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150 articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.
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- The Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) data for Q2 2021 are presented solely for the purpose of continuity. Readers are encouraged to interpret the data from those periods with caution. The GCAI is designed to offer early insight into the performance of the U.S. economy, based on data from the first two months of each calendar quarter. GCAI results for Q2 2021 were based on data from April and May 2021 compared to April and May 2020, when many businesses were affected by lockdowns and other restrictions.
- Effective Q2 2022, the Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) excludes Golub Capital portfolio companies that have recurring revenue-based credit facilities. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.