Private equity-backed middle market companies demonstrated continued resilience, with solid growth in revenue and earnings year-over-year.
The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies in advance of earnings season.
NEW YORK, October 13, 2026 – Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 6.9% year-over-year in the first two months of the third quarter of 2026. Revenue grew by 3.5% year-over-year during the same period.
Lawrence E. Golub, Co-CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Our data suggests that the U.S. economy continues to show resilient growth despite higher oil prices, rising interest rates and ongoing uncertainty related to the Iran conflict. Notably, median EBITDA growth outpaced median revenue growth by several percentage points for the first time since Q2 2025. Our sample of mission-critical enterprise software companies posted EBITDA growth well in excess of revenue growth, demonstrating a focus on profitability and margin discipline in this challenging environment. Overall, the resilience and adaptability of the U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations.”
Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “The solid operating performance of Consumer companies in our sample is notable given the pressure household budgets have faced from higher energy prices. Although consumer sentiment has been weak and consumers in some income segments have been facing affordability headwinds, those pressures have not translated into a pullback in consumer spending in the broader economy or into weaker performance within our sample of Consumer companies. We believe this highlights the importance of distinguishing carefully between measures of economic sentiment and measures of economic activity.”
The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender.
The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.
We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy; and (3) provide timely information for the investment community.
Effective January 1, 2026, Golub Capital enhanced its data collection capabilities, providing for more comprehensive data from an expanded sample of GCAI constituents. We believe our enhanced data collection capabilities increase data quality and strengthen the analytical rigor of future reports. Backtesting has confirmed historical comparability. The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by certain industry segments.
About the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
The Golub Capital Middle Market Report analyzes the results of the Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 privately owned companies in the Golub Capital loan portfolio for the first two months of each calendar quarter. The GCAI is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.
About Golub Capital
Golub Capital is a market-leading, award-winning direct lender and experienced private credit manager. The firm specializes in delivering reliable, creative and compelling financing solutions to companies backed by private equity sponsors. Golub Capital’s sponsor finance expertise also forms the foundation of its Broadly Syndicated Loan and Credit Opportunities investment programs. Golub Capital nurtures long-term, win-win partnerships that inspire repeat business from private equity sponsors and investors.
As of October 1, 2026, Golub Capital had over 1,100 employees and over $95 billion of capital under management, a gross measure of invested capital including leverage. The firm has offices in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. For more information, please visit golubcapital.com.
About Dr. Edward I. Altman
A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two dozen books and over 150 articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.
Important Disclosure
The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.